Gold weighed on a scale next to stock market charts

Silver Price Outlook: What COMEX Data Says Right Now

Sentiment in gold and silver just hit levels not seen since September 2022. That is not a warning. That is a data point serious investors should not ignore.

I joined George Noble on his X Spaces broadcast last week alongside analysts Michael Kramer and Dave Nikoski. We covered a lot of ground, but the conversation kept coming back to the same place. If you are asking why silver is going up over the long term, or whether silver is a good investment right now, the answer is in the data underneath the price — not the headlines.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index closed last week at 3.7. The last time I saw this index in single digits was September 2022, when silver sat near $18 just before a significant multi-year advance. Open interest in silver futures dropped from roughly 160,000 contracts in early February to around 111,000 today. Over 100 million ounces moved out of the COMEX registered category into London since October. That drained the inventory large short positions counted on, and when that inventory moves, the rationale for holding the short moves with it.

The silver price outlook has not changed because the fundamentals have not changed. The United States entered this year with a $1.7 trillion fiscal deficit before any new spending pressures arrived. Sovereign debt conditions globally keep deteriorating. Price volatility is not the story here. Physical metal in independent, segregated, insured storage sits outside the paper system. That paper system is showing real stress, and I think investors are underestimating how much.

I covered the COMEX delivery data and the SLV institutional positioning in detail during the space. If you want to understand how the spread between paper and physical gold markets signals stress before price moves, start with my breakdown of the EFP premium blowout. That context makes everything happening right now easier to read.

The Brief:

  • Sentiment Washout: I watched the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index fall from the 90s down to 3.7. The last time it reached single digits was September 2022, right before a meaningful multi-year advance. For anyone asking why silver is going up over time, this indicator is one reason I stay focused on the long game.
  • Paper Market Mechanics: The January silver spike was a derivative event. Institutional options positioning in SLV drove that move, not physical demand fundamentals. I do not think long-term investors should read it as one.
  • Open Interest Decline: Silver futures open interest fell from roughly 160,000 contracts to 111,000. In my experience, that kind of participation drop tends to precede directional moves in the silver price forecast.
  • COMEX Inventory Drain: Over 100 million ounces left the COMEX registered category and moved to London since October. That inventory backed the large short positions. When it left, so did their structural support.
  • Physical Supply Deficits: The silver supply deficit is still there. The paper market correction changed nothing about physical demand from industrial users, monetary buyers, or central banks. That is part of why I consider silver a good investment at this stage of the cycle.
  • China’s Influence: This is a global silver gold market analysis question, not just a Fed question. China has become a serious force in physical precious metals demand, and that demand does not stop because of US rate policy.
  • Fiscal Reality: A $1.7 trillion annual deficit is not a short-term problem to manage. It is the structural foundation of the entire bull case for metals, and it shapes my silver price outlook for the next several years.
  • Real Interest Rates: I am not looking for low nominal rates. I am looking for negative real rates, where inflation runs above the policy rate. That environment has not gone away, and it is central to any honest silver prices forecast.
  • -Volatility Is a Feature: If current price moves are causing distress, the position is too large. Volatility gives long-term buyers an entry. I do not see it as a reason to exit.
  • Physical Custody Matters: Whatever price does over the next 90 days, the case for holding physical metal in independent, insured, segregated storage has not weakened. The paper market events of recent months strengthen the argument for physical ownership, not against it.

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Bob Coleman Gold Miners Bullish
I have not seen this index ($BPGDM) at 3.7 since September 2022. Silver was at $18 then. What followed was a multi-year advance that most investors missed because they were watching price instead of sentiment.
Source: Stockcharts

COMEX silver futures open interest decline from 160,000 to 111,000 contracts — Bob Coleman silver market analysis

Open interest in silver futures dropped from roughly 160,000 contracts to 111,000 in a matter of weeks. That is not a small move. When participation leaves the COMEX at that pace, the short position loses its structural support — and the market tends to notice.
Source: Ycharts

Sitting in front of a computer screen, Bob Coleman meets with an investor

Meet the Author

Bob Coleman, with a successful career in investment and portfolio management since 1992, is the founder of Idaho Armored Vaults and Profits Plus Capital Management, dedicated to providing secure and comprehensive solutions for precious metal investment and storage, emphasizing transparency, risk mitigation, and client-focused service.

BOB COLEMAN
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(208) 468-3600
[email protected]

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