Why This Silver Market Is Unlike Anything We’ve Seen Before

Silver’s moving—but not for the reasons most investors think. Everyone’s watching price, but behind the scenes, it’s the structure that’s breaking down. We’ve got persistent backwardation, COMEX deliveries pulling metal back to London, and ETFs issuing shares without the physical to back them. Arbitrage is wide open, but few understand why. In normal markets, you’d expect futures to trade above spot due to cost of carry. Not now. Today, the physical price is leading, and that signals real-world stress. The spread between SLV and wholesale physical silver is widening, and refiners like Sunshine Mint can’t justify producing new product when the secondary market is flooded by retail sellbacks. That dynamic—where too much old product chokes off new fabrication—is a canary in the coal mine.

We’re not just seeing volatility—we’re seeing dislocation. Dealers can’t source key products. Lease rates are rising. Tariffs loom in the background. And all of this is happening with retail investors asleep at the wheel. Meanwhile, larger institutional orders are quietly returning, buying millions in product and vanishing without a headline. That’s the kind of flow that sets up a structural squeeze—not a hype cycle. If you’re expecting a repeat of 2011 or 1980, don’t. This market is defined by fractured liquidity, geopolitical friction, and a bifurcation between price discovery and physical ownership. That’s not a bull market—that’s a regime change.